Research on the influence factors of technogenic environmental pollution on population health based on statistical panel data analysis

Abstract

A statistical analysis of the incidence rate of various types of diseases in a population for different age groups was carried out: children (up to 14 years old inclusive), adolescents (15-17 years old), adults (18 years old and older), depending on environmental factors such as concentration of atmospheric impurities, as well as drinking water quality indicators. A dynamic autoregressive model for panel data was used to determine the quantitative dependence of the incidence rate in a population on environmental pollution factors. Panel data on population morbidity indicators, air pollution and the drinking water quality were built on the basis of official statistics for the districts of the Voronezh region and the city of Voronezh over a multi-year period. Considering that the incidence levels in the districts of the Voronezh region and in the city of Voronezh linearly depend on determining factors, linear dynamic models were constructed to describe the level of the disease classes recorded for the year, depending on the level of the corresponding disease classes for the previous year, as well as those registered for the analyzed year of concentrations of chemical impurities in the atmosphere or, accordingly, the values of drinking water quality indicators. As a result of the analysis, statistically significant quantitative dependences on the recorded factors of technogenic environmental pollution were obtained for certain classes of morbidity.