Research on the Impact of the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Epidemic on the Price Fluctuation of the Pig Industry in My Country

Abstract

In order to effectively respond to the impact of the COVID-19 on the China’s pig industry, by analyzing the impact of t the COVID-19 on the China’s pig industry, three indicators were established from three aspects: upstream production link, midstream circulation link, and downstream consumption link. The degree of response to the COVID-19, in order to consider how to steadily promote the high-quality development of the China’s pig industry in the context of the COVID-19. Construct a new COVID-19 situation public opinion index, use this index as a proxy variable for pneumonia epidemic situation, build a VAR model based on the daily data of the upstream, middle and downstream prices of the pig industry from January 19, 2020 to April 19, 2020, and conduct an empirical analysis. The COVID-19 has caused small fluctuations in product prices at different links in the pig industry chain, but the price fluctuations of each link are different. The price fluctuations of downstream consumer links are the largest. As the epidemic gradually controls, the impact on each link gradually weakens. In the face of the impact of the epidemic, China’s economy still has great resilience. The overall impact of the pneumonia epidemic on China’s pig industry is not large, and it does not change the fundamentals of China’s economy. And put forward suggestions on strengthening the prevention and control of epidemic diseases, industrial support, and logistics system construction in view of the problems in each link of the pig industry chain under the epidemic situation.