Research on the impact of RCEP rules of origin on China’s manufacturing industry

Abstract

As an extremely important part of the RCEP agreement, rules of origin will encourage enterprises to make more use of raw materials and intermediate products in the region, and more easily reach the regional value components to enjoy the preferential tariff treatment of the RCEP. This paper first analyzes the possible impact of the RCEP rules of origin on China’s manufacturing industry, and then simulates the economic impact of the implementation of the RCEP agreement on China’s manufacturing industry through the Global Trade Analysis Model (GTAP). The simulation results show that: (1) China’s industries with obvious industrial advantages, such as textiles and clothing, will benefit from this, but the output of some industries, such as rubber and plastic products, chemical products and drugs, will be impacted to some extent. (2) From the perspective of the import and export scale of the segmented industries, after the entry into force of the RCEP, China’s imports from the member countries in the region have increased significantly in rubber and plastic products, mineral products, transportation equipment, etc., while the exports have increased significantly in food, beverage, tobacco products, textile, clothing, leather products.