Research on the Impact of International Crude Oil and International Gold Price on China's Stock Market

Abstract

This dissertation uses the VAR model to research the dynamic relationship between the Chinese stock market, global gold prices and global oil prices. To compare the changes in the correlation between the variables before the financial crisis and the variables after the financial crisis, this dissertation divides the data into two parts, namely the data after the financial crisis and the data before the financial crisis, and then We compare the data analysis of the two parts to obtain the changes in the correlation between variables after the financial crisis. We find that there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between gold, crude oil and the CSI 300 stock index of China, either after or during the financial crisis. However, this dissertation found that during the financial crisis, the relationship between variables changed. In the conclusion part, this dissertation explained the possible reasons for the changes in the correlation between variables from several aspects. At the same time, we compared the actual situation with the theoretical analysis, and we found that after the financial crisis, the actual situation and the theoretical analysis have been different. By studying the potential connections between these variables, we can better formulate policies and give better investment recommendations.