Research on the Impact of China’s Foreign Trade Technology Spillover on Green Total Factor Productivity of Countries Along the “Belt and Road”: Based on the Institutional Quality Threshold Effect

Abstract

China’s growing trade with countries along the “Belt and Road” Initiative is accompanied by a focus on green development. Based on the panel data from 2007 to 2018, this paper establishes a threshold regression model to empirically analyze the institutional quality threshold effect of China’s foreign trade technology spillover on the GTFP of countries along the “Belt and Road.” The results show that China’s foreign trade technology spillover has a significant institutional quality double threshold effect on the green total factor productivity of the countries along the “Belt and Road.” As the institutional quality of the countries along the “Belt and Road” crosses a specific threshold value, the impact of China’s foreign trade technology spillover on the green total factor productivity of the countries along the “Belt and Road” has a significant positive promoting effect, and corresponding suggestions are put forward.