Research on the Feasibility of the Markov Prediction Model on Energy Consumption

Abstract

Recently, many countries have been making efforts to reduce their CO2 emissions. As a high-energy consumption sector, the transport sector faced challenges and responsibilities to save energy and reduce emissions. The purpose of this study is to forecast transport energy consumption from 2011 to 2020 based on Markov Prediction Model. This paper forecasted the variation tendency of energy structure in transport sector by Markov transition matrix. The result of the analyses showed that the proportion of kerosene, natural gas and electricity would increase rapidly, while the other fossil-energy consumption would decrease in the next decades. The tendency of energy consumption indicated the transport modes in the future, and it also drew a blueprint of railway electrification and further expansion of aviation industry. At last, some rationalization proposals about transport mode were mentioned as follows: the government should develop public transport and standardize the management of private cars; draw up the suitable requirements of achieving a strategy of sustainable development of electric vehicle and natural gas vehicle.