Research on the Development Path and Analysis Method of Electric Energy Substitution for the Global Energy Interconnection

Abstract

Under the background of global energy interconnection, predicting and analyzing the development path of electric energy substitution has important theoretical and practical significance for the further promotion of electric energy substitution globally and the promotion of global electrification. This paper analyzes the influencing factors that affect the proportion of electric energy in the final energy and uses the combination method to predict and analyze the global electric energy alternative development route. First, in the context of the rapid development of a variety of renewable energy sources, electrical energy and hydrogen energy are analyzed and compared in terms of production, storage, transportation, and safety. Secondly, use factors such as GDP, economic structure, energy utilization efficiency, and total population level that may affect the proportion of electricity to construct a co-integration model of the proportion of electricity. Finally, according to the factors that influence the proportion of electric energy, multiple linear regression and trend analysis methods that have better effects in mid-term and long-term demand forecasting are selected for analysis, and combined with the variance-covariance (MV) method to construct a combined forecasting model to obtain a global electric energy alternative development route forecast figure, illustrating the development trend of the proportion of power terminals, and then uses the scenario analysis method to further analyze the proportion of power terminals in 2050.