Research on the control path and countermeasures of net CO2 emissions in central China – represented by Jiangxi Province

Abstract

ABSTRACT The demand for carbon peaking and ‘carbon neutrality’ is putting pressure on some provinces in central China that are on the rise in economic development and rely on coal as their main energy source. This article takes Jiangxi Province as an example to study the relationship between net CO2 emissions and 11 indicators, the STIRPAT model is used to perform multivariate linear fitting. The results of regression are used to calculate the peak value of net CO2 emissions under different scenarios, and the fuzzy set qualitative analysis method is used to study the development model of net CO2 emissions in Jiangxi Province and its control path. The results showed that: (1) Per capita GDP has the most significant impact on the net CO2 emissions, while the proportion of total forestry output value, energy conservation, environmental protection expenditures in public expenditures, the number of buses vehicles operating per 10,000 people are negatively correlated with net CO2 emissions. (2) After simulating the possible development scenarios of Jiangxi Province, it can be concluded that there are in three scenarios the net CO2 emissions are most likely to peak before 2030. (3) Configuration analysis results showed that if Jiangxi Province wants to achieve ‘carbon neutrality’ in 2060, it is necessary to maintain both economic structural adjustment and energy consumption structural adjustment, with carbon intensity reduction as the main goal development model. (4) The central China should give more play to the advantages of the forestry industry and strengthen the energy structure regulation policy.