Abstract
In order to reduce the harm of red tide to marine ecological balance, marine fisheries, aquatic resources, and human health, an optimal Grey Verhulst model is proposed to predict the concentration of nitrogen in seawater, which is the key factor in red tide. The Grey Verhulst model is established according to the existing concentration data series of nitrogen in seawater, which is then optimized based on background value and time response formula to predict the future changes in the nitrogen concentration in seawater. Finally, the accuracy of the model is tested by the posterior test. The results show that the prediction value based on the optimal Grey Verhulst model is in good agreement with the measured nitrogen concentration in seawater, which proves the effectiveness of the optimal Grey Verhulst model in the forecast of red tide.
Highlights
With the population expansion, land resources are becoming more and more precious, which leads to the shortage of material resources and the crisis of energy
The results show that the prediction value based on the optimal Grey Verhulst model is in good agreement with the measured nitrogen concentration in seawater, which proves the effectiveness of the optimal Grey Verhulst model in the forecast of red tide
The paper is based on the Grey theory combined with the Verhulst model to predict nitrogen concentration which is the key factor of red tide
Summary
Land resources are becoming more and more precious, which leads to the shortage of material resources and the crisis of energy. The nitrogen concentration in seawater is regarded as a key factor to predict the occurrence of red tide. Measured results have shown that the change of the nitrogen concentration in seawater is not monotonous. Through the analysis of Grey system model and traditional Verhulst model, it is found that Grey system model is suitable to describe the monotonous change process, but it can be used in small sample data as well [3, 4]. In order to improve the accuracy of the prediction, an optimal Grey Verhulst model is proposed to predict the nitrogen concentration in seawater. The experimental results show its high precision and small error compared with other models [12], a testament to the effectiveness of the optimal Grey Verhulst model. The optimal Grey Verhulst model can be applied to forecast red tide
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