Research on the Change of GDP Growth, Monetary Growth and Price Index based on VAR and IRF

Abstract

In this paper, we use the macro data from the first quarter of 2001 to the first quarter of 2015, through vector autoregressive (VAR) model, Granger causality analysis, impulse response function (RFI) and variance decomposition analysis of quantitative analysis methods, to research on the relationship among China’s real growth variation of gross domestic product(GDP), Money supply growth rate and consumer price index. We find that the money supply growth has impact on China’s real growth variation of GDP in short-term, but there is no long-term significant effect. Economic growth is the main factor to promote the consumer price index growth, money growth is not the main factor driving the change in the price index. China’s currency growth is affected significantly by the change of the economic growth.