Abstract
In recent years, railway safety accidents have repeatedly occurred. Any omission in the process of management or operation can easily have very serious consequences. This study aimed to examine the causes and transmission mechanisms of safety risks in railway engineering departments. First, the multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm was employed to determine the key risk factors, allowing for indicator screening that was in line with the requirements of practical applications. Then, Bayesian networks were used, and their structure was optimized to analyze the propagation diagnosis and probability of key risk indicators, obtaining the causal logic chain that produces accidents and, from that, the four aspects (human, machine, environment, management) of the corresponding prevention of risk recommendations. Finally, in this article, it is shown that combining the indicators and Bayesian networks can improve the accuracy of risk prediction and provide more accurate results than using existing research and, hence, it can fill the gap in research on railway safety risks in risk transmission mechanisms.
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