Research on the carbon emission effect of the seven regions along the Belt and Road—based on the spillover and feedback effects model

Abstract

With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative and more frequent trade between countries along the Belt and Road, the spillover and feedback effects of economic and carbon emissions among the relevant regions have played an increasingly important role in regional carbon transfer and growth. This paper uses the three-regions model of spillover and feedback effects (SFE) to calculate the interactions and relationships among regional and sectoral carbon emissions. The results indicate that: (1) The intraregional effects have been larger than the interregional effects in the seven regions, and the spillover effects have been larger than the feedback effects. (2) From 2000 to 2015, the proportion of interregional spillover carbon emissions in Northeast Asia, West Asia, and North Africa decreased, while the proportion gradually increased in Central Asia. (3) In terms of interregional effects, the spillover emission effects of Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, West Asia, and North Africa have been significantly affected by China. Moreover, the feedback effect has been reflected mainly in the impact of other industries within the region, and the feedback effect of internal carbon emissions is much higher than that of external countries. (4) Electricity, gas and water, and transport have higher intra- and interregional emission multipliers, due to their high carbon emissions per unit of output.