Research on the Application of Grey Modeling Theory in the Prediction of Future Epidemic Trend of Infectious Diseases

Abstract

Grey theory is a kind of grey system theory founded by Professor Deng Jurong, a Chinese scholar in the eighties century. It is a new method to study the uncertainty problem with few data and poor information. In recent years, grey modeling forecasting method has been widely used in industry, agriculture, science and technology, economic and social development planning and analysis, hydrology, geology, breeding and natural disaster prediction and so on. The prediction of epidemic trend of infectious diseases is an important work in the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Therefore, the author of this paper studied the application of grey modeling theory in the prediction and prediction of epidemic trend. Objective: To introduce the grey modeling prediction theory into the prediction of epidemic trend of infectious diseases, and to provide a new prediction method of epidemic trend of infectious diseases. The methods are as follows: The GM(1.1) model was established with the grey system theory, and the grey modeling was carried out on the short and medium term confirmed cases and the wave time of the epidemic outbreak in China in 2021, and the simulation accuracy and precision were analyzed. Results: The average simulation accuracy of the established short-term prediction model reached 73.2% and the prediction accuracy reached 99.85%. The average accuracy of the simulation value of the model reached 97.67% and the prediction accuracy reached 97.33% for the time of wave occurrence in the epidemic. This paper also analyzes the reasons for the low simulation value and prediction accuracy of the grey model forecasting method for the medium and long term confirmed cases of the epidemic.