Research on technologies in quantitative risk assessment and forcast of network security

Abstract

Currently, the internet becomes an important information infrastructure, and internet security problem have become strategic issues related to the country safety. Therefore, it is important theoretical and practical value to make network security risk assessment theory and key technology research. As the internet has the characteristic of complex nonlinear systems, we lead nonlinear system analysis and forecasting techniques into the quantitative risk assessment of network security. It aims at exploring the complexity and uncertainty relationships among the elements in risk element and to establish a framework and method for quantitative risk assessment. In this paper, we introduce nonlinear system theories on chaos and fractal for complexity analysis of network threat frequencies and to reveal the essential characters in the network time series. Secondly, we study nonlinear chaotic prediction methods for network threat frequencies. Finally, we analyze quantitative characteristics of network threat behavior.