Research on Tail Risk Hedging in the Digital Asset Market

Abstract

In recent years, the digital asset market has experienced rapid growth, but at the same time, its implicit tail risks have gradually raised concerns, especially amidst the global economic downturn caused by the pandemic. This paper aims to study tail risks and propose hedging strategies. Based on the GARCH and VaR models, this paper uses weekly return data from July 2017 to December 2021 for Bitcoin digital cryptocurrency and traditional non-digital asset market indices such as stocks, bonds, gold, and commodities. Utilizing EViews and Excel, the study explores tail risk measurement and portfolio diversification effects in the digital asset market. The main findings are as follows: (1) During the sample period, cryptocurrency returns exhibited significant volatility, with weak correlations with returns from traditional non-digital assets. Further analysis revealed strong hedging effects of digital assets against the bond market but weaker effects against the gold and stock markets, as well as commodity markets; (2) Cryptocurrency in traditional investment portfolios can enhance the risk-return ratio by adding it to the asset mix.