Research on supply and demand balance of water resources in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Abstract

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, as the largest city group in the north of China. However, the shortage of water resources is a shortcoming that restricts the sustainable development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. How to realize the rational allocation and optimization of water resources in the context of the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is a key issue that needs to be resolved in the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Based on a preliminary analysis of the characteristics of the temporal and spatial changes in water supply in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2001 to 2016, this study established the System Dynamics (SD model) for the supply and demand balance of water resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and simulated three different scenarios, namely traditional scenario, development scenario, and sustainable scenario. Forecasting the supply and demand of water resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under different scenarios from 2016 to 2030, according to the forecast results, extracting the dominant factors and proposing an optimal control strategy for the water-supply-demand balance configuration model for the coupling of SD in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This study can provide useful exploration for enriching and improving the interaction mechanism of economic-social-resource-environment system, and provide reference for the balance of supply and demand of water resources in similar water-scarce areas in the world.