Research on Self-Organizing Evolution Level of China’s Photovoltaic Industry Chain System

Yiping Liu,Jian Chen,Lingjun Wang

doi:10.3390/su12051792

Abstract

According to the self-organizing theory, we first constructed an index system of the self-organizing evolution level of China’s photovoltaic (PV) industry chain system from two aspects: of development level and synergy level. Furthermore, according to the relevant data of China’s PV industry, the self-organizing evolution level of the system from 2008 to 2017 was measured and evaluated by using the system evolution level measurement model and cloud model. Finally, the GM (1, 1) model was used to predict the self-organizing evolution level of the system from 2018 to 2022. The results show that the overall self-organizing evolution level of China’s PV industry chain system shows a rising trend in the ten years from 2008 to 2017, gradually transitioning from a low evolution level to a relatively low evolution level, with the evolution level declining in 2012 and 2015. It is expected that the self-organizing evolution level will continue to maintain a stable and orderly growth trend in the next five years, entering a medium evolution level stage from 2021. If the current evolution speed can be maintained, it is expected to reach a self-organizing evolution state in the next 20 years or so.

Highlights

Developing renewable energy, effectively coping with climate change, and promoting clean and low-carbon transformation of energy have become a global consensus [1]
Based on the four subsystems of the PV industry chain, namely, the upstream, midstream, downstream of the main chain, and auxiliary chain, and taking into account the two driving factors of synergy level and development level, this paper evaluated and predicted its self-organizing evolution level
From the development level chart of each subsystem in the PV industry chain, it can be seen that the development level of the four subsystems shows an upward trend on the whole, but the range is different

Summary

Introduction

Developing renewable energy, effectively coping with climate change, and promoting clean and low-carbon transformation of energy have become a global consensus [1]. In this context, the Chinese government has clearly proposed the phased goals of non-fossil energy development, and the development of the photovoltaic (PV) industry is an important part of it [2]. In the initial stage of entering the global value chain, China’s PV industry mainly produced midstream products in the industry chain [7], which was in the development state of “two heads outside” at that time [8]. In the 13th five-year plan, the government has put forward new requirements for diversified applications in the PV industry

Methods

Results

Conclusion