Research on Risk Quantification Methods for Connected Autonomous Vehicles Based on CNN-LSTM

Abstract

Quantifying and predicting driving risks for connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) is critical to ensuring the safe operation of traffic in complex environments. This study first establishes a car-following model for CAVs based on molecular force fields. Subsequently, using a convolutional neural network and long short-term Memory (CNN-LSTM) deep-learning model, the future trajectory of the target vehicle is predicted. Risk is quantified by employing models that assess both the collision probability and collision severity, with deep-learning techniques applied for risk classification. Finally, the High-D dataset is used to predict the vehicle trajectory, from which the speed and acceleration of a target vehicle are derived to forecast driving risks. The results indicate that the CNN-LSTM model, when compared with standalone CNN and LSTM models, demonstrates a superior generalization performance, a higher sensitivity to risk changes, and an accuracy rate exceeding 86% for medium- and high-risk predictions. This improved accuracy and efficacy contribute to enhancing the overall safety of connected vehicle platoons.