Research on Risk Propagation in Fresh E-commerce Supply Chain Based on Complex Networks

Abstract

In recent years, the rapid growth of the fresh e-commerce industry has introduced several potential risk factors to the supply chain that necessitate preventative measures. This paper aims to study the risk propagation within the fresh e-commerce supply chain and propose strategies for risk control. Firstly, a dual local world fitness network model is constructed by combining the fitness model with the local world model. This model is then validated, showing consistency with the actual network. Building upon this, an improved SEIRS risk propagation model is developed, and the basic reproduction number is calculated to simulate the risk propagation within the fresh e-commerce supply chain. The results indicate that the degree of risk propagation is positively correlated with the initial infection rate, risk outbreak rate, and loss of immunization rate, while negatively correlated with the risk recovery rate and risk elimination rate.