Research on risk assessment of CTCS based on fuzzy reasoning and analytic hierarchy process

Abstract

In this paper, we describe the formatting guidelines for ACM SIG Proceedings. In order to assure safety of Chinese Train Control System (CTCS), it is necessary to ensure the operational risk is acceptable throughout its life-cycle, which requires a pragmatic risk assessment required for effective risk control. Many risk assessment techniques currently used in railway domain are qualitative, and rely on the experience of experts, which unavoidably brings in subjective judgements. This paper presents a method that combines fuzzy reasoning and analytic hierarchy process approach to quantify the experiences of experts to get the scores of risk parameters. Fuzzy reasoning is used to obtain the risk of system hazard, analytic hierarchy process approach is used to determine the risk level (RL) and its membership of the system. This method helps safety analyst to calculate overall collective risk level of system. A case study of risk assessment of CTCS system is used to demonstrate this method can give quantitative result of collective risks without much information from experts, but can support the risk assessment with risk level and its membership, which are more valuable to guide the further risk management.