Research on risk assessment based on Monte Carlo simulation and dose-response multistage model

Abstract

The occupational hazard assessment of construction project implemented currently in China plays an important role in early prevention of occupational diseases. But the assessment techniques and methods are mostly based on qualitative mode or experience mode. There are still not unified and clear assessment methods and quantitative models to evaluate the chronic and potential cancer risk of chemicals. Because of the lack of scientific quantitative assessment methods, the risk can not be assessed quantitatively and scientifically. That also turns to be one of the technical difficulties demanding prompt solution in occupational hazards assessment. This paper introduced the risk assessment technique based on Monte Carlo simulation and dose-response multistage model. This method regarded the probabilistic risk of cancer as assessment target, and mainly used in quantitative assessment of cancer risk caused by chronic exposed to chemical carcinogens. The widely adopted four-step assessment method was used in health risk assessment, and it included hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment and risk characterization. We used internal dose instead of external dose in assessment, and it made the result more accurate. The relationship between exposure dose and adverse health effect is determined by multistage model. For the uncertainty in exposure and risk assessment, we use Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the probability distribution. This method can be used practically in occupational hazards assessment and provide a scientific basis to the control of occupational hazards and the prevention and management of occupational tumor and other serious occupational diseases.