Abstract
As the leader of Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which cuts off majority of tariff for participating countries, action of Japan has been followed with interest, especially in its traditional protecting industries, agricultural business. This paper estimates the relationship between the cyclical component of monthly total import value on agricultural product during 2011-2021 and the participation of CPTPP. It shows that there exist significant before and since distinction, which could be explained in 4 perspectives: inaccurate fitting method, existence of omitted bias, existence of multiple collinearities, and the step-by-step elimination on tariffs.
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