Abstract
This paper conducts an evaluation of the effectiveness of energy transition in Fujian Province, and evaluates the relationship between energy consumption and various factors in Fujian Province. First, a prediction model for the relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption is constructed, and the relationship between carbon emissions and variables such as population structure, economic development, industrial structure, energy structure, and trade level is analuzed. Then, the future trend of each influencing factor are predicted separately. The ARIMA and GM(1,1) models are used to predict the future trend of each influencing factor. Finally, the future energy consumption and carbon emissions of Fujian Province is predicted. Forecasting is done in two stages. In 2020-2030, the predicted values of relevant influencing factors are derived from the results of modeling analysis. From 2030 to 2060, the predicted value of relevant influencing factors also takes into account the trend judgments of experts and scholars.
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