Research on Real Estate Wealth Effect under the Background of Double Cycle Based on VAR Model

Abstract

In order to cope with the complex and severe development situation at home and abroad, in May 2020, the Party Central Committee proposed to accelerate the formation of a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the mutual promotion of the domestic and international double cycles. Among them, the consumption of Chinese residents is a “double cycle” key part of strategy. From the perspective of consumption structure and property structure, real estate is an important part of household property and an important consumer object in China and it has a decisive influence on the effect of internal circulation. By constructing a real estate wealth effect model, this paper adopted the impulse response function method based on the VAR model, studies the changes in real estate prices, residents’ incomes, and residents’ consumption. The results show that the three interact with each other. In the long run, real estate has a positive wealth effect, but in the short term, there is a negative wealth effect, and consumers’ expectations of future housing prices will affect current consumption changes. In order to promote the domestic cycle, the author proposes to develop and improve the primary and secondary housing markets to ensure the liquidity of real estate, thereby stimulating consumption; guide residents to form healthy real estate price expectations, prevent large fluctuations in housing prices, and strictly stabilize consumption; the policy positioning of “no speculation” reduces the crowding-out effect of investment and speculative house purchases on residents’ daily consumption, thereby increasing consumption.