Research on Projection Market Diffusion in China by Bass Model

Abstract

This paper analysis the projection market diffusion process by Bass model, estimated the model parameters of projection market diffusion model. Use the past years projection purchase statistic data in China, make a positive analysis of projection diffusion model, forecast the purchases of future and prospect the time and number of maximum purchases. There mathematics models are frequently used in forecasting a new product diffusion and sales, Bass model, Compertz model and Logistic Model, in which Bass model cluster are used more widely and frequently. Bass model have a simple structure and parameters assumption, get a good explain ability, can guide product marketing favorable. This paper analysis the projection market diffusion process by Bass model, estimated the model parameters of projection market diffusion model. With the expectation to give some advices to enterprises that entered or want to enter this market. I. BASS MODEL FOR DIFFUSION OF INNOVATION Notations used in this section: ) (t N :The cumulative number of purchasers by time t, N : Expected number of potential adopters of the product, p&q : Constants representing the coefficient of internal and external influence respectively, ) (t b : The rate of diffusion per remaining potential adopters,