Abstract
Traditional probabilistic safety analysis methods are not suitable for modern flight control system with multi-state probability. In this papera Bayesian Network based probabilistic safety model is built according to the state relationship between flight control system and its constituting components. A safety probability algorithm is proposed by using Universal Generating Function (UGF) combined with Clique Tree Propagation. The probability of system top failure condition and the importance of each constituting component are acquired efficiently, the safety level of the flight control system can be assed and the role of each component in the system safety can be determined. The probabilistic safety analysis approach based on Bayesian Network provide a simple and intuitive measure to deal with the safety analysis of flight control system with multi-state property, which overcome the deficiencies of traditional approach.
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