Research on prediction of energy demand in China based on grey theory and system dynamics

Abstract

Energy is a key material basis for economic development and social progress and an important factor affecting human living environment. It is of great significance to scientifically and rationally predict energy supply in China for the formulation of energy policy and promotion of energy strategy in China. Based on the analysis of the current situation of energy supply and demand in China, the grey prediction model is used to predict and calculate the benchmark parameters. The system dynamics of energy supply and demand in China is modeled and the baseline scenario and high-tech scenario are set; the energy supply and demand is predicted and analyzed for long-term; as technological progress is the key to solve energy problems in China, it is imperative to propose energy transformation in China and give the corresponding policy recommendations.