Research on Prediction Model of Particulate Matter in Dalian Street Canyon

Abstract

In urban areas where populations commonly reside, particle mass concentrations in street canyons can pose significant risks to human health. This study aimed to investigate the diffusion mechanism of particle mass concentrations in urban street canyons by developing and applying a prediction model based on the mathematical modeling of physical processes. The prediction model considered factors such as the influence of traffic wind, natural wind, traffic flow, and other relevant variables influencing particle mass concentrations in street canyons. Field measurements were conducted in Dalian, China, to verify the feasibility of the model. Particle mass concentrations, traffic flow, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were measured on Shichang Street (a two-lane one-way road), Tangshan Street (a four-lane two-way road), and Shengli Road (a six-lane two-way road). The results indicated that the majority of traffic peaks occurred around 19:00 on all road types. The PM1.0 mass concentration was well diluted on the four-lane two-way road, with the least dilution observed on the two-lane one-way road. A strong correlation between the particle mass concentrations and traffic flow was discovered. Furthermore, a prediction model was established, accurately predicting the particle mass concentrations when the prediction step was from 5 to 15 s. The coefficient of determination (R2) between the predicted and measured values on the two-lane one-way road, four-lane two-way road, and six-lane two-way road was 0.9319, 0.6582, and 0.9238, respectively. Additionally, the prediction model allowed for a detailed analysis of traffic flow limitations, corresponding to the recommended World Health Organization (WHO) PM2.5 values. Overall, the findings of this study offer valuable insights for forecasting particle exposure levels in street canyons.