Research on Predicting Line Loss Rate in Low Voltage Distribution Network Based on Gradient Boosting Decision Tree

Abstract

Line loss rate plays an essential role in evaluating the economic operation of power systems. However, in a low voltage (LV) distribution network, calculating line loss rate has become more cumbersome due to poor configuration of the measuring and detecting device, the difficulty in collecting operational data, and the excessive number of components and nodes. Most previous studies mainly focused on the approaches to calculate or predict line loss rate, but rarely involve the evaluation of the prediction results. In this paper, we propose an approach based on a gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), to predict line loss rate. GBDT inherits the advantages of both statistical models and AI approaches, and can identify the complex and nonlinear relationship while computing the relative importance among variables. An empirical study on a data set in a city demonstrates that our proposed approach performs well in predicting line loss rate, given a large number of unlabeled examples. Experiments and analysis also confirmed the effectiveness of our proposed approach in anomaly detection and practical project management.