Research on Optimal Dispatch of Regional Integrated Energy System Under Uncertain Conditions

Abstract

Background: This paper is focused on the uncertainty influence on dispatch decision-making of regional integrated energy system caused by multiple power prediction errors of intermittent power generation, such as: Wind power generation, photovoltaic power generation, etc. Objectives: The objective of dispatching decision-making model is the minimization of energy consumption cost, considering the constraints such as: Balance of supply and demand, power, and capacity limitation of each energy facility, etc. Methods: A modeling method based on copula function is proposed to quantify the joint random probability distribution characteristics of multipower errors. Results: Then a stochastic optimal dispatching decision-making model of the integrated energy system considering multiple power prediction errors is provided. An algorithm based on the combination of Monte Carlo and genetic algorithm is also provided to solve this model. Conclution: Finally, a case study is carried out based on a typical system to verify the effectiveness of the model and algorithm. The results show that the quantitative analysis of the joint random distribution characteristics of multiple power prediction errors and the application of stochastic dispatch model are helpful to improve the confidence level of the scheduling decision-making scheme of the regional integrated energy system, and have certain utility in engineering.