Research on Newborns Forecasting in China-based on the Three-Child Policy

Abstract

The essay uses data from 1921-2021 to forecast the impact of three-child policy on births based on the National Bureau of Statistics of China. By using different methods (Arima, Holt, Change Point, Functional Data Analysis), this paper draws a conclusion that the number of newborns in China is likely to be an upward trend after the publication of three-child policy. To be precise, the result from the Arima model has no reference value, while the results from Holt’s method and the change point method indicate that the number of babies born in China will rise. Referring to the change point analysis, it represents a downward trend if there are not any adjustments. However, after combining the data with world birth tendency, the result shows that the number of newborns in China is growing in the next following years. These results represent that the publication of China’s three child policy has a positive effect on the figure for new babies born in China.