Research on navigation safety of sub-sea tunnel exploration project based on dynamic Bayesian network

Abstract

In view of the limitation that the static risk assessment is difficult to describe the dynamic characteristics of risk factors, this paper proposes a dynamic risk assessment method for navigation safety in exploration waters based on dynamic Bayesian network. Firstly, given the uniqueness of exploration operation, the navigation risk index system of exploration waters is established; And then the prior probability of the node is determined by using the improved D-S evidence theory, calculating the weight of the node by the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method, and the conditional probability distribution of the intermediate node is calculated by the weighted distance formula, parameters of the model can be obtained; Then the navigation risk assessment model based on dynamic Bayesian network dynamically predicts the probability of maritime navigation risk accidents; Finally, sensitivity analysis is used to identify the key risk factors of accidents. The research results show that human factor, navigation environmental factor and management factor are determined as the key risk factors. The navigation risk is large during the transition period from preliminary exploration to detailed exploration, which is in good agreement with the actual evaluation of experts and the statistical law of historical data, indicating that the model can better predict the dynamic navigation risk level of construction waters.