Research on Multi-Port Ship Traffic Prediction Method Based on Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks

Abstract

The intelligent maritime transportation system has emerged as a pivotal component in port management, owing to the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence and big data technology. Its essence lies in the application of digital modeling techniques, which leverage extensive ship data to facilitate efficient operations. In this regard, effective modeling and accurate prediction of the fluctuation patterns of ship traffic in multiple port regions will provide data support for trade analysis, port construction planning, and traffic safety management. In order to better express the potential interdependencies between ports, inspired by graph neural networks, this paper proposes a data-driven approach to construct a multi-port network and designs a spatiotemporal graph neural network model. The model incorporates graph attention networks and a dilated causal convolutional architecture to capture the temporal and spatial dimensions of traffic variation patterns. It also employs a gated-mechanism-based spatiotemporal bi-dimensional feature fusion strategy to handle the potential unequal relationships between the two dimensions of features. Compared to existing methods for port traffic prediction, this model fully considers the network characteristics of the overall port and fills the research gap in multi-port scenarios. In the experiments, real port ship traffic datasets were constructed using data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) and port geographical information data for model validation. The results demonstrate that the model exhibits outstanding robustness and performs well in predicting traffic in multiple sub-regional port clusters.