Research on Medium and Long Term Power Load Forecasting Considering Intelligent Power Utilization

Abstract

with the economic and social development of China, intelligent power utilization is getting increasing common in the daily lives of residents, while the types of electricity equipment are becoming various significantly. Furthermore, the electricity consumption behavior of different types of users are diverse. The load characteristics may change, such as peak load transferring, peak and valley differently increasing, and even peak on peak load at the same time. The intelligent power utilization can make scientific and rational use of electrical equipment, so that the electricity consumption can be reduced, which also brings a challenge to load forecasting. Based on the research of intelligent power utilization, this article employed a probability distribution model to fit the users' behavior, and established corresponding load models to characterize its interaction with the power grid. After that, based on the prospect-gray theory, a medium long term load forecasting method considering intelligent power utilization was proposed and analyzed by examples. Finally, this paper used MATLAB to get the power load forecasting result and analyze the influence of intelligent power utilization on the total power load.