Research on Land Use Simulation of Incorporating Historical Information into the FLUS Model—Setting Songyuan City as an Example

Abstract

Historical information has been included in the study of land use change, but the historical information is described from the perspective of urban growth. This study selected the relevant angle between historical construction land and current construction land, and quantitatively described history information. This research put forward the STLEI index and STEWMEI index, which quantitatively describes the historical information scores, and draw the following conclusions: the closer the construction land generation period is to the current, the greater the driving effect, and this difference is particularly obvious in the past 5 years. We incorporated historical information into the FLUS model; the FoM index increased by 1.93% compared with the previous inclusion, and the Kappa index increased by 2.45% compared with the previous inclusion, verifying the driving role of historical information in land use change. Historical information has an obvious driving effect in land use change. After that, we used the FLUS model, combined with the Markov chain model, anti–planning concepts, and incorporated historical information to simulate the land use change in 2025. These experiments show that historically generated construction land plays a driving role in current and future land use changes and provides a new perspective for the study of land use simulation.