Research on investment process dynamics taking into consideration stochasticity of world and national economies’ crisis phenomena

Abstract

Purpose. To analyze the flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ukraine, countries of the OECD, the G-20, the EU, and the World, as well as the impact of the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic on investment activity in the World; to identify problems and threats for investment activity in modern conditions, to identify relationship between FDI in Ukraine, the level of exports and imports of goods and services in Ukraine, to forecast these indicators. Methodology. In the process of research, general logical methods and research techniques were applied: analysis, synthesis, generalization, analogy, modeling, probabilistic (statistical) methods. The materials of the official analytical reports of the OECD, the European Commission, and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine were used to achieve the tasks of the investigation. The statistical data for the period 20112019 was analyzed. Forecast of foreign direct investment in Ukraine for the period 20202023 was implemented using the theory of Markov chains. Findings. The study indicates a significant decline in investment activity since the beginning of 2020 due to the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. Almost all economies in the world witnessed the impact of the crisis. There was a drop in investment activity in Ukraine output flows tended to decrease during 20092019. Taking into account the stochasticity of the processes taking place in the world economy, on the basis of the theory of Markov chains, forecasting of FDI in Ukraine was carried out. The modeling showed that in 2023 the situation with FDI in Ukraine would stabilize. Taking into account the predicted scenarios, the authors suggested that enterprises must focus on domestic investment and government support to overcome the crisis in the economy caused by the situation with COVID-19. Originality. The scientific novelty is in the use of the theory of Markov chains, which was adapted by the authors for research and forecasting of FDI in Ukraine till 2023. This theory makes it possible to take into account the stochasticity and instability of the processes occurring in the global and national economies. Practical value. The analysis of incoming and outcoming FDI flows and the identified threats to investment activity makes it possible to assess the dynamics of world economic processes and global competitiveness in the period 20112020. Using the tools of economic and mathematical analysis based on the regression influence, the degree of influence of direct investments in Ukraine on the dynamics of the GDP of the national economy and the level of exports and imports of goods were investigated. The forecasting of the dynamics of direct investments in Ukraine in the near future was carried out using the theory of Markov chains, which will allow working out appropriate decisions on the strategic development of the state.