Abstract
Purpose: Electric vehicles industry has gotten a rapid development in the world, especially in the developed countries, but still has a gap among different countries or regions. The advanced industrialization experiences of the EVs in the developed countries will have a great helpful for the development of EVs industrialization in the developing countries. This paper seeks to research the industrialization path & prospect of American EVs by forecasting electric vehicles demand and its proportion to the whole car sales based on the historical 37 EVs monthly sales and Cars monthly sales spanning from Dec. 2010 to Dec. 2013, and find out the key measurements to help Chinese government and automobile enterprises to promote Chinese EVs industrialization. Design/methodology: Compared with Single Exponential Smoothing method and Double Exponential Smoothing method, Triple exponential smoothing method is improved and applied in this study. Findings: The research results show that: American EVs industry will keep a sustained growth in the next 3 months. Price of the EVs, price of fossil oil, number of charging station, EVs technology and the government market & taxation polices have a different influence to EVs sales. So EVs manufacturers and policy-makers can adjust or reformulate some technology tactics and market measurements according to the forecast results. China can learn from American EVs polices and measurements to develop Chinese EVs industry. Originality/value: The main contribution of this paper is to use the triple exponential smoothing method to forecast the electric vehicles demand and its proportion to the whole automobile sales, and analyze the industrial development of Chinese electric vehicles by American EVs industry.
Highlights
Background of International Electric Vehicles IndustryHarvard Kennedy School (2011) has reported there may be as many as 1.5 billion cars on the road by 2050, compared to 750 million in 2010
It shows that the percentage of Electric Vehicles (EVs) sales to Cars sales has gotten a steady growth in the past 3 years, with the increase from 0.06% in Dec. 2010 to 1.55% in Dec. 2013, and it reaches to 1.70% in Jan. 2014, 1.74% in Feb. 2014, and 1.78% in Mar. 2014
This study is one part of our whole research project, which devotes to work out the linear and non-linear relationship between the EV sales and the influence factors including some could be measured and others can’t be measured, and seeks to find out the key factors which influence on the EVs sales most
Summary
Background of International Electric Vehicles IndustryHarvard Kennedy School (2011) has reported there may be as many as 1.5 billion cars on the road by 2050, compared to 750 million in 2010. In November 2008, the German government put forward promoting the use of 1 million pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the 10 years, and claimed that the implementation of this plan marked Germany would enter the electric vehicles era. America government implement Green New Deal, among which the electric vehicles are considered as an important part of national strategy, and plan to popularize the use of 1 million hybrid electric vehicles by 2015. After 2000, Chinese government has presented Series of policies to push EVs industry development, such as 863 major projects of Electric vehicle R&D and industrialization (Jan. 2001), Automobile industry restructuring and revitalization plan (Mar. 2009), Notice on the private purchase of new energy vehicles subsidy pilot (Jun. 2010) and Energy-saving and new energy automotive industry development plan (2010 - 2012). The national governments increase policy support and promote the industrialization of electric vehicles with all strength. The international EVs industry has a very great development opportunity
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