Research on Income evaluation of photovoltaic agricultural investment model based on fuzzy real option

Abstract

With the proposal of emission peak and carbon neutrality, in view of the actual development of China's energy economy , photovoltaic agriculture becomes an important means to promote the economic development of poor and remote areas. Aiming at the investment modes of photovoltaic agriculture projects such as agricultural land leasing and farmers' participation in investment, this paper constructs a fuzzy real option investment model, and uses Monte Carlo simulation method to evaluate and analyze the income of both photovoltaic power generation project modes. The research shows that compared with the traditional real option income evaluation, the fuzzy real option model is more suitable for the investment evaluation of photovoltaic power generation project modes, and the project with farmers’ participation has higher returns. The income evaluation results show that the best time to benefit from the photovoltaic power generation project is in the next seven years or so, which provides reference for policy guidance and investment decision-making, and helps to promote the development of photovoltaic agriculture projects.