Abstract
Because of the internal and external factors' influence, catastrophe occurs frequently in the economic system. Most of the current prediction models which use historical data will fail if catastrophe occurs. This paper establishes GFAM (1, 1) which is an grey function model (1,1) based on functional theory, Bayesian Network theory and Interval Grey Number theory. More precise prediction can be made with this model by fully mining the existing data. Steps of GFAM (1, 1) are given in the paper. Finally a case is analyzed to prove the effectiveness of the model.
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