Research on Gas Concentration Prediction Based on the ARIMA-LSTM Combination Model

Abstract

The current single gas prediction model is not sufficient for identifying and processing all the characteristics of mine gas concentration time series data. This paper proposes an ARIMA-LSTM combined forecasting model based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network. In the ARIMA-LSTM model, the ARIMA model is used to process the historical data of gas time series and obtain the corresponding linear prediction results and residual series. The LSTM model is used in further analysis of the residual series, predicting the nonlinear factors in the residual series. The prediction results of the combined model are compared separately with those of the two single models. Finally, RMSE, MAPE and R2 are used to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the three models. The results of the study show that the metrics of the combined ARIMA-LSTM model are R2 = 0.9825, MAPE = 0.0124 and RMSE = 0.083. The combined model has the highest prediction accuracy and the lowest error and is more suitable for the predictive analysis of gas data. By comparing the prediction results of a single model and the combined model on gas time series data, the applicability, validity and scientificity of the combined model proposed in this paper are verified, which is of great importance to accurate prediction and early warning of underground gas danger in coal mines.