Research on Function Reliability of Gear Door Lock System With Correlated Failure Models Based on Mixed Copula

Abstract

The gear door lock system (GDLS) is a mechanism with multi-failure modes. It often leads to a large error when ignoring the correlation between failure modes. Copula theory in this work is applied to research the correlation between two failure modes. A dynamic simulation model is constructed to acquire the joint statistics characteristics of the two failure modes. Gumbel and Clayton Copula functions are chosen to establish the reliability model respectively, which shows that the single Copula model cannot fully capture the tail dependence. To solve the problem, a mixed Copula function is constructed. The minimum squared Euclidean distance is adopted to estimate the parameters of the reliability models. It shows that the result of mixed Copula model is the closest to that of the Monte Carlo simulation, and it presents the relative error is at least 46% lower than the single Copula.