Abstract
The frost heave and thawing settlement in the seasonal frozen areas can cause the track geometry change, even seriously affect the driving safety. Taking the HSR-A railway as the research object, this paper divides the change process of track surface during the period of frost heave and thawing settlement into four stages, and equates the four stages into a trapezoidal change process. Then the characteristics of these stages are summarized. Finally, based on the track geometry measurements (TGM), two different linear functions are used to represent the track surface changes before and after frost heave start respectively, and this essay proposes the start time estimations model(STEM) to estimate the start time of frost heave. STEM is applied to 10 typical frost heave positions in the HSR-A. The results show: the estimated effect is good.
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