Abstract
Logistics and economic development complement each other. The comprehensive competitiveness of Guangdong provincial economy ranks first in China. Under the influence of COVID-19, the freight development of Guangdong Province has been affected, but there is still lack of quantitative research. It is significant to explore the trend of economic development through the freight development of Guangdong Province. Based on the grey theory model, this paper uses six freight indexes to research freight development of Guangdong Province. Under the assumption that COVID-19 did not happen, we predicted the development value of freight index of Guangdong Province from January to December in 2020 and studied the influence based on the comparison between the predicted value and actual value. The empirical study shows three impact characteristics: stage characteristics, structural characteristics, and entity transmission characteristics. COVID-19 has a negative impact on the development of total freight volume, highway freight volume, waterway freight volume, and air freight volume in Guangdong Province. The influence values were −23.001%, −29.344%, −11.296%, and −3.838%. But, the freight volumes of railway and pipeline were positively affected by 14.343% and 13.057%, respectively, due to their continuity and substitution to other transportation modes. To further explore the abate measures of COVID-19 impact on Guangdong’s freight development, the grey correlation model is introduced to study the correlation factors of freight development of Guangdong Province. Through the research of the related factors, this paper puts forward some measures to promote the freight development of Guangdong Province in the postepidemic era.
Highlights
Guangdong Province is the South Gate of China, located in the South China Sea shipping hub position, since the Qin and Han Dynasties have become the starting point of the maritime Silk Road. e comprehensive competitiveness of Guangdong provincial economy ranks first in China
In 2020, Guangdong Province’s GDP reached 11.08 trillion yuan, accounting for one-eighth of China’s economy. e nine cities in the Pearl River Delta of Guangdong Province join hands with Hong Kong and Macao to build the bay area of Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao and become one of the four bay areas in the world side by side with New York Bay area, San Francisco Bay area, and Tokyo Bay area. e developments of economy and logistics complement each other. e rapid economic development of Guangdong Province promotes the improvement of logistics development level [1,2,3,4], which further supports the economic development of Guangdong Province
In order to study the impact of COVID-19 on freight transportation in Guangdong Province and explore mitigation measures, this paper intends to use the grey prediction model grey model (GM) (1, 1) to analyze the impact and introduce the grey correlation model to conduct a quantitative study on the correlation degree of the factors affecting the freight development of Guangdong Province
Summary
Guangdong Province is the South Gate of China, located in the South China Sea shipping hub position, since the Qin and Han Dynasties have become the starting point of the maritime Silk Road. e comprehensive competitiveness of Guangdong provincial economy ranks first in China. E COVID-19 outbreak as a public health emergency has a negative impact on the economy from multiple channels. It has a direct impact on the logistics economy. E epidemic situation affects the demand and supply of the logistics market It affects the development of logistics enterprises through the operation of logistics and indirectly transmits to the field of logistics through the impact on domestic real economy and foreign trade. In order to study the impact of COVID-19 on freight transportation in Guangdong Province and explore mitigation measures, this paper intends to use the grey prediction model GM (1, 1) to analyze the impact and introduce the grey correlation model to conduct a quantitative study on the correlation degree of the factors affecting the freight development of Guangdong Province. According to the correlation factors of the freight development of Guangdong Province, this paper puts forward some measures to promote the freight development of Guangdong Province in the postepidemic era
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