Abstract
In this paper, grain demand and supply models were established based on data collected from the China Statistical Yearbook and the website of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. This paper uses stepwise regression method to establish linear regression, residual autoregressive model and C-D production function, residual autoregressive model to analyze various factors that may affect grain yield. Then, R software was used to conduct collinearity test and residual analysis on the results, and cluster analysis method was used to conduct in-depth analysis on the causes of grain yield fluctuation. Finally, the regression equation of grain yield was obtained. Through MATLAB simulation curve, the values of the four main influencing factors are predicted respectively to get the future grain yield of China.
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