Research on Financial Early Warning Based on Combination Forecasting Model

Abstract

Since entering the 21st century, “economic globalization” has become a hot topic. Under the impact of “economic globalization”, the competition of the Chinese domestic market continues to intensify, and Chinese enterprises are facing enormous pressure for survival and development. Among them, there are many cases of poor business operation caused by financial crisis which have directly put these companies in trouble, even causing them to go bankrupt. Therefore, it is very practical to establish a scientific data model to analyze and predict the financial data of enterprises. It can not only monitor the financial status of the enterprise in real time, but also play an effective financial early warning role. This research focuses on using the combined forecasting method to establish a more comprehensive financial early warning model to solve the related financial crisis forecasting problem. Specifically, two different forecasting methods are first adopted in this study to conduct financial early warning research. The first is time series forecasting. It is a dynamic data processing statistical method, which is often used in forecasting research in the business field. The second is the BP neural network algorithm (referred to as BP), which is an error back-propagation learning algorithm, which is often used in the field of artificial intelligence. Then, the prediction error values of the two methods are compared and they are applied to the combined prediction method. Finally, a new error prediction formula is obtained. The result shows that the BP method provides the best performance over others, while the combinational forecasting method offers better performance than any single method.