Abstract
The fault tree analysis (FTA) method is an important analysis method for safety system engineering. Traditional accident analysis theory agrees that basic events lead to top events, but it does not fully consider that the accident process is accidental, and the calculation results exaggerate the probability of accident occurrence. This paper selects typical collision accidents, analyzes the shortcomings of the existing fault tree, indicates that there is a contingency in the accident process, constructs a probability fault tree based on the traditional fault tree, and puts forward concepts of “probability AND gate” and “probability OR gate”. In addition, based on the traditional quantitative analysis method of fault trees, calculations of the occurrence probability, probability importance coefficient, and critical importance coefficient of top events are modified, and the modified quantitative calculation is applied to accident cases.
Highlights
The causal analysis of accidents is a common method for identifying and analyzing the causes of accidents and preventing or controlling them
According to the existing fault tree analysis method and the event-causal chain, basic cause events lead to intermediate events and to top events
According to the existing collision fault tree and event chain, during accident occurrence and development, the basic events or a combination of basic events leads to the occurrence of the accident layer by layer; that is, previous conditions inevitably lead to the occurrence of subsequent events, such as poor road traffic conditions leading to fatigue driving, which, in turn, leads to inattention, incorrect judgment, insufficient longitudinal distance, and too fast a speed, which further leads to collisions
Summary
The causal analysis of accidents is a common method for identifying and analyzing the causes of accidents and preventing or controlling them. Hua et al [11] considered the accidental explosion of dangerous goods in Tianjin Port, China, as the research object and systematically analyzed the causes of the accident based on fault tree analysis. Their results showed that the basic events of the fault tree should be introduced into the probability model, which should be used to quantitatively analyze and judge various top events. In response to the above problem, this paper considers the chance nature of accidents of transferring basic events to top events in the fault tree is ignored.
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