Research on Energy Supply and Demand Forecast and Carbon Neutralization Path Based on Grey-Monarch Butterfly Optimization Model

Abstract

Energy and electricity are the key areas for China to achieve the double carbon target, and accurate forecasting of future energy supply and demand and carbon emissions is beneficial to develop a feasible path for low carbon transition. The gray prediction model GM (1, 1) is one of the most widely used dynamic prediction models in the field of energy forecasting, but it requires high raw data and the model may fail when the development coefficient of GM (1, 1) is large. On the other hand, the gray action of GM (1, 1) directly determines the model prediction accuracy, this paper introduces a novel population intelligence algorithm monarch butterfly optimization (MBO), which has excellent performance in practical optimization problems, into the optimization process of gray action of GM (1, 1), and proposes a new Gray-Monarch Butterfly optimization prediction model to realize the prediction. By comparing the prediction data with the classical literature, the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed Gray-monarch butterfly optimization prediction model are confirmed.Finally a carbon neutral pathway is given for Tianjin based on the prediction results.