Abstract
In order to study the dynamics and relevance in the process of emergency decision-making, this paper proposed an emergency decision-making model for major disasters based on stochastic Petri nets and equivalent Markov chains. The Qingdao “11·22” oil pipeline explosion accident that occurred in 2013 was selected as a case study in the present research. The model was statically and dynamically analyzed by using Markov chain identification transfer probability and fuzzy set calculation method. The calculation results showed that for the proposed model, on-site information, expert judgment and disposal plan information were the largest in workload and low efficient. Improving the collection and analysis efficiency of on-site information and similar cases in history could improve the efficiency of analysis, generation and correction of the disposal plan. Collection and analysis of on-site information has the largest impact on the speed and probability of initial plan information generation.
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