Research on Dynamic Analysis of Equipment Fault for High-Speed Railway Integrated with Train Operation Diagram

Abstract

Equipment fault can make a major impact on the normal operation in high-speed railway. Such events cause delay to passengers and lead to a deviation from the scheduled train diagram. Delay impact can be described as an absolute value of delay time reflecting the overall operation status. Obtaining a dynamic impact prediction can potentially help to monitor the status and manage the adjustment measures. To investigate the impact of the resulting passengers’ delay due to the equipment fault, this research proposes a dynamic analysis method to compute the total delay impact efficiently. Integrated with the train operation diagram, the duration of the impact is divided into three phases, and the delayed trains are tracked continuously. This approach allows updating the delay at regular intervals. Moreover, a gray prediction model is used to make a time series prediction on delay impact of the fault event. The results show that the prediction has a great accuracy. The presented method is significant for real-time monitoring and short-term prediction in delay analysis.