Research on Determinants and Potential of Goods Trade between China and ASEAN Countries under “the Belt and Road” Initiative

Abstract

The trade between China and ASEAN countries has been very close since ancient times. Taking China and ASEAN countries as research objects, this paper analyzes the current situation and changing trend of China's and ASEAN countries' trade in goods based on the import and export data of both sides from 2001 to 2018. By using the trade gravity model, this paper empirically analyzes the determinants of trade in goods between China and ASEAN countries, and further calculates the trade potential of goods between China and ASEAN countries. The empirical results show that the GDP of China and ASEAN countries has a positive impact on bilateral trade, while the geographical distance between trading countries has a negative impact on bilateral trade. In terms of trade potential, China's trade in goods with more than half of the ASEAN countries still has a huge potential for expansion and a broad prospect for trade in goods.